CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-27T06:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-27T06:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32245/-1
CME Note: Asymmetric halo CME visible towards the NW in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and towards the NE in STEREO A COR2. The source is an M3.1 flare from AR 3762 with dimming/EUV wave towards the N/NW starting at 2024-07-27T05:42Z best seen in GOES SUVI 195 and 284 (SDO/AIA has an eclipse shortly after the event starts). The eruption is also visible south of disk center as seen in available EUV imagery. Arrival signature: a likely combined shock of this CME and up to 3 preceding CMEs characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to above 10 p/cc.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-30T01:00Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: Cone + HAF (SEPC, NSSC, CAS)
Prediction Method Note:
predicted CME shock arrival time:2024-07-30T01:00Z Confidence that the CME will arrive:50% Kp Range:4-7Lead Time: 43.87 hour(s)
Difference: -1.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Jingjing Wang (NSSC SEPC) on 2024-07-28T03:28Z
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